And the Oscar Goes to?: 2019 Oscars Predictions!
By: Ann Nguyen ‘22
Whether you’re having an Oscars Watch Party and want to impress your friends in SCA or you just want to be informed, here are my recommended picks and everything you need to know in making your own 2019 Oscars predictions!
I have been keeping up with the current Oscars race for almost an entire year — basically since last year’s Oscars. Having always been a huge cinephile, I know everything about how the process works, what constitutes an Oscar-worthy display, and what indicators are most reliable in predicting the Academy Awards. So without further ado, let’s get this show started.
My Predictions:
Actor in a Supporting Role: Mahershala Ali
Honestly, Green Book could have submitted him alongside Viggo Mortensen for Best Actor; that’s how incredibly fleshed-out the portrayal of his character was. Though the Academy does like to mix things up and Ali won this category only recently for Moonlight, hearing any other name called would be an upset, especially since he’s already nabbed the Golden Globe, Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Award, British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA), and the Critics’ Choice.
Other Nominees:
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Sam Rockwell, Vice
Makeup and Hairstyling: Vice
The ability to completely change an actor into a historical/real-life figure beyond recognition seems to practically guarantee the Oscar win. The Iron Lady and last year’s The Darkest Hour are just two examples. Christian Bale’s insane transformation from The Batman into Dick Cheney alone earns this Oscar.
Other Nominees:
Border
Mary Queen of Scots
Costume Design: Black Panther
Yes, the Academy LOVES awarding this one to period pieces, and with the over-the-top designs and execution that artfully place you in a different, romantic-feeling time, who could blame them? Black Panther, however, makes you feel like you’re in a completely different world, combining elements of African culture with futuristic flair! The costume design on The Favourite, which many seem to think is the favorite for this category, and Mary Poppins Returns was done by the same person, so this may split some votes. Fun fact: a Black Panther win here would mark the first African American woman to win it.
Other Nominees:
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
The Favourite
Mary Poppins Returns
Mary Queen of Scots
Documentary Feature: RBG
Although I would have liked to see Won’t You Be My Neighbor? nominated (and likely win), it’s not one of our options here. Though Free Solo is a critical success and has been gaining some buzz, RBG still seems to be most well-known, and will likely end up with the Oscar. I wouldn’t be surprised if Free Solo came out on top in the end though.
Other Nominees:
Free Solo
Hale County This Morning, This Evening
Minding the Gap
Of Fathers and Sons
Sound Editing: A Quiet Place
This beautifully made movie deserves more love than it’s gotten. The Academy probably thinks so too. And if there’s any film this year where sound plays an integral role, it would be A Quiet Place, which edits the sounds masterfully. First Man is still a favorite, however, and Black Panther wouldn’t be a crazy surprise, so definitely keep that in mind!
Other Nominees:
Black Panther
First Man
Roma
Bohemian Rhapsody
Sound Mixing: First Man
The way that sounds are layered within this film is pure genius. If you watched the film and paid attention to only the sound composition, you would still feel like you were there, experiencing everything alongside Ryan Gosling. First Man deserves recognition, and I think this is a great consolation prize for its nomination snubs in other categories. Watch out for dark horse Black Panther though.
Other Nominees:
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
Roma
A Star Is Born
Production Design: Black Panther
The Favourite in its frill and lavishness puts up a really good fight, but once more I think this one’s going to Black Panther for building such a visually-stunning, intricately detailed world. The Wakanda Throne Room alone wins this Oscar for me.
Other Nominees:
The Favourite
First Man
Mary Poppins Returns
Roma
Foreign-Language Film: Roma
This category could go three ways, and it all depends on how much support the Academy has for Roma in the Best Picture category. If the film does win Best Picture, how could it not win this category?… Unless the voters want to share the wealth, and give this Oscar to a well-deserving Cold War. If voters don’t like Roma for Best Picture, maybe this Oscar would be awarded as consolation. Two out of three scenarios points to Roma, so that’s where I’m going!
Other Nominiees:
Capernaum (Lebanon)
Cold War (Poland)
Never Look Away (Germany)
Shoplifters (Japan)
Actress in a Supporting Role: Regina King
No contest. She’s already won the Golden Globe and Critics’ Choice, and her main source(s) of competition cancel each other out. I don’t think anyone this year deserves the Oscar more than King does for her powerful, emotional performance in If Beale Street Could Talk.
Other Nominees:
Amy Adams, Vice
Marina de Tavira, Roma
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Animated Short Film: Bao
Pixar tends to produce wonderful shorts, even if it doesn’t always win for them. Bao, however, definitely should win. Weekends did earn itself an Annie, but Bao is still more well-known. Besides, this short made me cry in a theater, surrounded by eight year-olds. It’s the first Pixar short directed by a woman, let alone an Asian woman. Bao earns this one.
Other Nominees:
Animal Behaviour
Late Afternoon
One Small Step
Weekends
Animated Feature Film: Spider-Man: Into the Spiderverse
Is there even any question? It’s won the Golden Globe, Critics’ Choice, BAFTA, Producers Guild of America (PGA), and all seven Annie Award categories for which it was nominated. Sorry, Mickey Mouse, but the Spider’s got this Oscar webbed up in every universe.
Other Nominees:
Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Mirai
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Visual Effects: First Man
Many people think this is where Avengers: Infinity War gets some Oscars praise, but as impressive as bringing Josh Brolin’s motion capture performance to life and throwing moons truly is, just one look at the end sequence of Neil Armstrong on our moon - creating such a realistic surface with craters you feel you could reach out and touch - gives me goosebumps. The visual effects throughout the film are so breathtakingly beautiful that it’s hard to not choose First Man.
Other Nominees:
Avengers: Infinity War
Christopher Robin
Ready Player One
Solo: A Star Wars Story
Film Editing: Bohemian Rhapsody
Though its overall editing
might be a little too choppy, the film makes up for it with great editing in
its music video-like sequences, especially the Live-Aid performance. A
side-by-side comparison with the film’s Live-Aid and actual footage really
sells the film editing on Bohemian Rhapsody, and it has already won some
editing guild awards. However, don’t
count out Vice or BlacKkKlansman.
Other Nominees:
BlacKkKlansman
The Favourite
Green Book
Vice
Documentary Short Subject: Period. End of Sentence.
This category is a tough one since I honestly have not seen any of the presented short docs. But have no fear! I’ve done my research, so you don’t have to. All nominees have a real chance of winning, all having something important and relevant to say. My recommended pick is about the stigma around menstruation in India and how the featured women make sanitary pads as a means of financial independence. I’m including some descriptions for the other films for you, but those who have seen all the nominees give Period. End of Sentence a slight edge for its element of hope and glimpse of a brighter future.
Other Nominees:
Black Sheep - a character study on the insidious effects of racism
End Game - terminally ill patients and a unique perspective on life and death
Lifeboat - the rescue of refugees from sinking rafts by German volunteers
A Night at the Garden - a 1939 Nazi rally in Madison Square Garden
Live Action Short Film: Marguerite
Well… I haven’t seen these either, but the favorite here seems to be Marguerite because, unlike Detainment, it’s uncontroversial; and unlike any of the other films, it’s not extremely horrific. Skin is said to be of equal compelling elements and higher quality filmmaking, so don’t completely count it out, but if you’re looking for something un-grim Marguerite is the short for you and most likely for the Oscars as well.
Other Nominees:
Detainment
Fauve
Mother
Skin
Adapted Screenplay: BlacKkKlansman
Though I feel If Beale Street Could Talk is equally deserving of this Oscar for its emotional look on racial injustice, the Academy may be going for a legacy award here. Spike Lee has made some phenomenal pictures in the past, but this year is his first Best Director nomination. I think people want to award him for all his great work, but that probably won’t come in the form of Best Director or Best Picture, so this is probably where they will recognize him. Although, people also might think If Beale Street Could Talk and Barry Jenkins aren’t getting enough recognition as well, so definitely don’t count that film out!
Other Nominees:
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
If Beale Street Could Talk
A Star Is Born
Original Screenplay: The Favourite
It’s my favorite for this category, even though many people are thinking the Oscar will go to Green Book. The Writers Guild of America (WGA), which my pick wasn’t eligible for, is usually a good indicator for original screenplay; all it’s done this year is make things more complicated by giving the award to Bo Burnham’s Eighth Grade — which I think deserves and would win the Oscar too but isn’t nominated — over Green Book, Roma, and Vice. The Favourite’s wit and sass is basically Oscar-bait, and its competition’s lack of WGA support indicates a win, but it all hinges on the Academy’s love for Green Book. Note that if Green Book does pull out a victory here, it may be on its way to winning Best Picture.
Other Nominees:
First Reformed
Green Book
Roma
Vice
Cinematography: Roma
Alfonso Cuaron is set to be the first director to win the Oscar in cinematography for shooting his own film. The film has won the Golden Globe and Critics’ Choice, though Cold War did best Roma for the top American Society of Cinematographers award. Yet the stark imagery and beautiful movement in each frame created by the monochromatic aesthetic that Cuaron meticulously crafted makes Roma a shoo-in to me.
Other Nominees:
Cold War
The Favourite
Never Look Away
A Star Is Born
Original Score: If Beale Street Could Talk
I would love for Ludwig Goransson’s hip-hop and African-infused score to receive the prize, but I think the Oscar clearly goes to Nicholas Britell’s gut-wrenching, heartfelt compositions for If Beale Street Could Talk. The score perfectly emulates its film and just hearing a few chords will place listeners in the world of the film’s love story caught in the midst of tragedy. The only other horse in this race would have been Justin Hurwitz and First Man, which won the Critics’ Choice and Golden Globe. I’m a sucker for Hurwitz, and it seems as though the Academy is too… or at least they once were. First Man is not nominated to the surprise of many, so it’s all coming up Beale Street.
Other Nominees:
Black Panther, Ludwig Goransson
BlacKkKlansman, Terence Blanchard
Isle of Dogs, Alexandre Desplat
Mary Poppins Returns, Marc Shaiman
Original Song: “Shallow”
We all went off the deep-end with this song at the top of every chart last October. This pick is a guarantee.
Other Nominees:
“All the Stars,” Black Panther
“I’ll Fight,” RBG
“The Place Where Lost Things Go, ” Mary Poppins Returns
“When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings,” The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Directing: Alfonso Cuaron
Spike Lee is long overdue for his Oscar for directing, but I think he will unfortunately have to wait a little longer. Cuaron just seems too tough to beat, and the gravity of the situation cannot be understated. He has already taken home the Golden Globe, BAFTA, Directors Guild of America (DGA), and Critics’ Choice; should an Oscar for Roma join his plethora of achievements, Cuaron will join an elite list of two-time Best Director winners. Fun Fact: His win would make it five times out of the last six years that the Oscar in this category goes to a Mexican director (going back to win Cuaron won it the first time).
Other Nominees:
Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
Pawel Pawlikowski, Cold War
Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
Adam McKay, Vice
Actor in a Leading Role: Rami Malek
Bohemian Rhapsody became a worldwide sensation last year, but let’s face it; the film is a typical biopic that is elevated by an impressive, captivating performance (and also love for the band Queen). Rami Malek as Freddie Mercury is what I feel truly makes Bohemian Rhapsody so great. The Golden Globes, Screen Actors Guild (SAG), and BAFTA seem to have agreed with me. However, Christian Bale, who did also receive a Golden Globe and the Critics’ Choice, is a close contender - especially amidst Bryan Singer controversies spiraling around Bohemian Rhapsody that may have influenced Academy voters.
Other Nominees:
Christian Bale, Vice
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
Actress in a Leading Role: Glenn Close
This one goes to Close, and it isn’t close. Talk about waiting your turn! Her role in The Wife is her seventh nomination. She deserved an Oscar for her role in Fatal Attraction (1987), but better late than never, right? And her nuanced, powerful yet subtle performance as a wife, overshadowed by a narcissistic husband who has claimed her novels as his own work and is set to receive the Nobel Prize for her compendium, more than earns her the win. Though she and Gaga tied for the Critics’ Choice and Olivia Colman took the BAFTA, Close has been the leader of the pack since her Golden Globe win - adding the SAG to her merits, and the Academy’s wish to recognize her legacy propels her to the Oscar win.
Other Nominees:
Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Best Picture: Roma/???
Let’s break things down a little because the picture for Best Picture is looking cloudy. I think it’s relatively safe to rule out A Star Is Born, Bohemian Rhapsody, and Vice. Though early projections before the Golden Globes had the Lady Gaga/ Bradley Cooper flick winning just about everything, the film has since lost a lot momentum. Voters went from feeling obligated to choose A Star Is Born to instead feeling obligated to pick anything else. Bohemian Rhapsody was an audience hit and Vice has both star power and a driven political commentary, but both fell flat with critics. Vice is also a comedy, which is a genre the Academy tends to neglect, and the real-world implications of awarding Bohemian Rhapsody and director Bryan Singer an Oscar is far too distasteful in face of the #MeToo movement.
These are the reasons why the remaining films could potentially win:
The Favourite: This comes down to the results of Original Screenplay, which I think it will win. Best Picture usually also wins best screenplay, whether it be adapted or original. The performances of Olivia Colman, Emma Stone, and Rachel Weisz also boost up its prospects. Preferential balloting could give it the Oscar.
What it has going against it: There’s not quite enough Oscars buzz around it.
BlacKkKlansman: SPIKE LEE. Aside from its director’s clout, the film is significant, relevant, and often downright hilarious. It blends together social issues and entertainment in truly great way that deserves to be recognized. Once more, preferential voting may help this film win it all.
What it has going against it: A win now may bring back criticism for not rewarding Lee for his phenomenal early works Do the Right Thing or Malcolm X.
Black Panther: The Academy has added many fresh voters this past year. Maybe they don’t find it to be the absolute best film of the year, but with preferential voting, if many voters have the film toward the top of their ballots, USC alum Ryan Coogler and Marvel could come out on top. Secondly, the SAG for Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Movie, which Black Panther won, tends to be a good indicator for Best Picture. The Oscars have also been trying to gain the attention of younger audiences, and having Black Panther win would be such a historic moment that is sure to have people more excited about the prestigious ceremony in the future.
What it has going against it: Best Picture winners usually have their directors nominated for Directing, and Coogler was snubbed for Best Director. Despite its heavy themes and important messages, the Academy may still fear backlash for giving the top prize to a superhero, franchise film — especially since some find Spider-Man: Into the Spiderverse to be a superior film.
Green Book: It’s slowly been picking up steam and has won a Golden Globe and the PGA. It features Mahershala Ali’s great performance and just kind of seems like a typical Best Picture winner overall. Once more, a Best Original Screenplay win, would definitely boost its prospects for this category.
What it has going against it: Offscreen controversies, which has ruled out fellow Golden Globe winner Bohemian Rhapsody all together. Additionally, it is criticized for not reflecting the true story that inspired it. The subject of the film itself is a little touchy in seemingly being dismissive about elements of continued racial injustice.
Roma: It’s breath-taking, emotional, heartfelt, and personal. It depicts such a real and poetic look into Cuaron’s life. It’s hard to deny that Roma is at the very least one of the top two films of the year in regard to the Oscars. I think that the film should garner the most 1st-rank votes, but it’s a matter of whether or not it can get a majority with preferential balloting. In the end, choosing Roma just feels right. It also won the BAFTA and Critics’ Choice.
What it has going against it: There may be an anti-Netflix sentiment that leads voters, mainly ones who fear that streaming services will bring the end of the theatrical experience (I sure hope they don’t!), to mark their ballots another way. It’s the first Netflix film to be nominated, and the Academy might not be ready just yet for Netflix to actually win Best Picture.
Well, that’s all folks! Whether you’re watching ABC from your laptop on Sunday, checking out the ceremony from a dining hall TV, or catching up on the winners the next morning, I hope my insight has helped you come to some conclusions for your own ballot predictions. While the movie stars are thanking the Academy, I’d like to thank you for giving this blog a read.
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