2020 Oscars Predictions
By: Ann Nguyen ‘22
Whether you’re having an Oscars Viewing Party and want to impress your SCA friends or you just want to be informed, here are my recommended picks and everything you need to know in making your own 2020 Oscars predictions!
The 92nd Academy Awards are THIS Sunday, Feb. 9 at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood. The show starts at 5 PM PST and will air on ABC. You can stream from ABC or through Hulu Live to catch the awards.
If you enjoyed checking out my 2019 predictions, welcome back for some more cinephile fun! For the 2020 Oscars, my prediction was correct for 17 of the 24 categories — with my second choice going on to win in 4 of the remaining categories. So you can trust me. I do in-depth research for each category, analyzing all the nominees carefully. Hopefully this year my foresight is 20/20.
Don’t worry. You probably won’t have to deal with too many corny jokes like that during the big night, since the Academy Awards will go host-less for a second straight year. Well, without further ado, let’s get this show started.
My Predictions:
Actor in a Supporting Role: Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
He’s already taken home the award for Best Supporting Actor from the Golden Globes, Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards, Critics’ Choice Awards, and British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) Awards — and he deserves it! In a colorful film where Hollywood characters are even larger than “larger than life,” Brad Pitt steals the show from his co-stars, including Leo himself. This would be his first Academy Award for acting.
Other Nominees:
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Joe Pesci, The Irishman
Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes
Makeup and Hairstyling: Bombshell, Kazu Hiro, Anne Morgan and Vivian Baker
This is the first year the category has opened up to five nominees, rather than three. Even so, Bombshell wins in a landslide. Joaquin Phoenix’s transformation into the Joker and Renee Zellweger’s into colorful and loud Judy Garland was subtly executed impressively, but Charlize Theron’s uncanny complete transformation into Megyn Kelly is unbeatable.
Other Nominees:
Joker, Nicki Ledermann and Kay Georgiou
Judy, Jeremy Woodhead
Maleficent: Mistress of Evil, Paul Gooch, Arjen Tuiten and David White
1917, Naomi Donne, Tristan Versluis and Rebecca Cole
Costume Design: Jojo Rabbit, Mayes C. Rubeo
Yes, once more the Academy truly loves awarding this one to period pieces. Little Women, in this regard and simply in its romantic execution, is the frontrunner. However, I believe that Jojo Rabbit can come in and take the Oscar. It will be close, but the film set in Nazi Germany is able to make the hyper-reality of its world come to life through costume. It brings an ultra-vibrancy to the drab and dreary town midst World War II, which is a very difficult task to handle so brilliantly. While Little Women did win the BAFTA, Jojo Rabbit claimed the Costume Designers Guild Award.
Other Nominees:
The Irishman, Sandy Powell and Christopher Peterson
Joker, Mark Bridges
Little Women, Jacqueline Durran
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Arianne Phillips
Documentary Feature: Honeyland
Too bee or not too bee? — That is the question. The frontrunner in this category seems to be American Factory. It is backed by Barack and Michelle Obama’s production team, which has definitely been a factor. For Sama took home the BAFTA Award and is definitely also a major contender. Honeyland, however, shows so much personality, which tends to be awarded by the Academy. Unlike the other nominated films, it is not heavy and distinguishes itself from the crowd. Also, it is the first film to be nominated both for Documentary Feature and Best International Film. This breathtaking story about North Macedonian beekeepers has certainly created quite the buzz.
Other Nominees:
American Factory
The Edge of Democracy
For Sama
The Cave
Sound Editing: 1917, Olivia Tarney and Rachael Tate
Sound Editing and Mixing are both such incredibly difficult categories this year. The competition comes down mainly to 1917 and Ford v Ferrari. I feel that they both deserve recognition in sound, and for me the split comes in the difference between the two categories. Sound editing is all about the collection and creation of sound, while sound mixing is how those sounds are weaved together to become what we hear in the movie. 1917 used an innovative mix of new and old technologies in creating the sounds of war. Many believe it will actually take both categories.
Other Nominees:
Ford v Ferrari, Donald Sylvester
Joker, Alan Robert Murray
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, Matthew Wood and David Acord
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Wylie Stateman
Sound Mixing: Ford v Ferrari, Paul Massey, David Giammarco and Steven A. Morrow
Ford v Ferrari fully takes us into the world of racing, and the excellent sound mixing, as well as sound editing, is highly evident — particularly in the racing scenes, of course. At this year’s Golden Reel Awards (The Guild Award for Sound Editing), it won Outstanding Achievement in Sound Editing.. At the Cinema Audio Society (The Guild Awards for Sound Mixing), the film also took the top prize of Outstanding Achievement in Sound Mixing. Like 1917, I wouldn’t be surprised if Ford v Ferrari took home the Oscar in both categories. It certainly has support in the guild, but there are many more Academy voters whose opinions may differ.
Other Nominees:
Ad Astra, Gary Rydstrom, Tom Johnson and Mark Ulano
Joker, Tom Ozanich, Dean Zupancic and Tod Maitland
1917, Mark Taylor and Stuart Wilson
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Michael Minkler, Christian P. Minkler and Mark Ulano
Production Design: Parasite, Lee Ha Jun & Cho Won Woo
This category is yet another tough one. Production design comes down to three films for me. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood was able to bring audiences back to 1969 and Hollywood. 1917 found a way to transport us to the battlefields of World War I, and the recreation of bunkers and war landscape had to be done from scratch. Parasite, likewise created its setting from scratch, carefully designing the now iconic house that was key to the movie’s aesthetic, as well as its functionality. The interesting architecture crafted with blocking in mind, and the film would not have been the same without it. They accomplished a spectacular feat that hopefully the Academy voters appreciated. I pick Parasite here, but 1917 is a likely frontrunner, and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood would not be a total shock to win.
Other Nominees:
The Irishman, Bob Shaw and Regina Graves
Jojo Rabbit, Ra Vincent and Nora Sopková
1917, Dennis Gassner and Lee Sandales
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Barbara Ling and Nancy Haigh
International Feature Film: Parasite
Yeah, it’s Parasite.
Do you hear the people sing*… about any other film than Parasite? It’s received global acclaim and puts up a strong fight for Best Picture and Best Director. At the very least, the Academy will award this film phenom for Best International Feature.
*Les Miserables has absolutely no connection to the Victor Hugo novel or its musical adaptation or the movie adaptations of said musical or novel.
Other Nominiees:
Corpus Christi (Poland)
Honeyland (North Macedonia)
Les Miserables (France)
Pain and Glory (Spain)
Actress in a Supporting Role: Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Man, I would really love for Scarlett Johansson to take this category. Her performance in Jojo Rabbit was extraordinary because she tackled both the heartfelt and comedic moments so well. Her Black Widow co-star Florence Pugh also had success in adding depth to the historically bratty Amy March and has received media attention for it. Even so, Laura Dern is the standout of the bunch — with Johansson a ways behind her as runner up. She’s been nominated for an Oscar two other times and received an Emmy for Big Little Lies. Her driven performance as a divorce lawyer has Hollywood buzzing. Dern has already received the Golden Globe, SAG Award, BAFTA Award, and Critics’ Choice Award for her fiery performance. There’s little reason to believe she wouldn’t get the nod from the Academy as well.
Other Nominees:
Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell
Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit
Florence Pugh, Little Women
Margot Robbie, Bombshell
Animated Short Film: Hair Love
The battle for best animated short is between Pixar and Sony. Now, Pixar clearly has a great history of success in this category, and Kitbull, which centers on the relationship between an adorable stray kitten and an abused pitbull, is such a great heavy-hitter. It tugs at all the heartstrings and is just so cute. I wouldn’t count it out at all, but I give the slightest edge to Hair Love for its sociocultural relevance. It revolves around an African American father who is learning how to handle his daughter’s hair for the first time. It is charming and delightful and was created by former NFL football player Matthew Cherry.
Other Nominees:
Dcera (Daughter)
Kitbull
Memorable
Sister
Animated Feature Film: Klaus
The Academy loves Disney Pixar — and rightfully so. Toy Story 4 is yet another fantastic entry into the the Pixar collection. Though I personally found Toy Story 3 a better film, this latest feature is still wonderful and likely would take home the big prize. Klaus, however, has been the awards darling. It claimed 7 Annie awards, including Best Animated Feature, and also took home the BAFTA. 13 times out of the last 18 years, the Oscar winner in this category had been the one to take home the Annie. Missing Link could also be an underdog contender, winning the Golden Globe, and of course… never completely rule out Pixar.
Other Nominees:
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
Missing Link
I Lost My Body
Toy Story 4
Visual Effects: 1917, Guillaume Rocheron, Greg Butler and Dominic Tuohy
I am probably one of the biggest Marvel Cinematic Universe fans in existence, but I sadly don’t think the motion capture performances by Thanos and company can take this one, as impressive as the visual effects were in Endgame. Though this may be the Academy’s way of giving the entire Avengers franchise some love. The Lion King took home the top honor for Outstanding Visual Effects at the Visual Effects Society Awards, and the de-aging work in The Irishman is certainly also quite the achievement. The seamless visual effects of 1917 immerse the audience in the battlefield landscape. A one-to-one comparison of the film before and after visual effects is insane to look at. Visual effects in 1917 worked so well with the cinematography, and it created an absolutely believable and breathtaking film.
Other Nominees:
Avengers: Endgame, Dan DeLeeuw, Russell Earl, Matt Aitken and Dan Sudick
The Irishman, Pablo Helman, Leandro Estebecorena, Nelson Sepulveda-Fauser and Stephane Grabli
The Lion King, Robert Legato, Adam Valdez, Andrew R. Jones and Elliot Newman
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, Roger Guyett, Neal Scanlan, Patrick Tubach and Dominic Tuohy
Film Editing: Parasite, Yang Jinmo
This film is filled with such masterful sequences in editing. It’s also a lengthy film that clearly required a lot of skilled work to accomplish in creating the final product. Ford v Ferrari received some love in this category from the BAFTA, but the ACE Eddies (The Guild Awards for Film Editing) awarded Jojo Rabbit for Best Edited Feature Film (Comedy) and Parasite for Best Edited Feature Film (Dramatic). 22 times in the last 29 years, the winner of this category at the Oscars won the Best Edited Drama Feature at the Eddies, and Parasite definitely deserves the Academy Award this year to keep that streak going. The editing is just so clever!
Other Nominees:
Ford v Ferrari, Michael McCusker and Andrew Buckland
The Irishman, Thelma Schoonmaker
Jojo Rabbit, Tom Eagles
Joker, Jeff Groth
Documentary Short Subject: Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl)
This short tells the charming story of young girls in Afghanistan who are only able to leave their houses for this skateboarding program. They’re literally dodging bullets to come and enjoy aspects of childhood. It has so much heart, and you just can’t help but love this documentary short.
Other Nominees:
In the Absence- the sinking of a South Korean passenger ferry in 2014, which claimed the lives of over 300 passengers, most of whom were high school students
Life Overtakes Me - hundreds of refugee children in Sweden withdraw into a coma-like state called Resignation Syndrome due to the uncertainties of their legal status
St. Louis Superman - a character study of Bruce Franks Jr. who is 34-year-old battle rapper, Ferguson activist, and state representative from St. Louis, Missouri
Walk Run Cha-Cha - the story of Paul and Millie Cao, who reunited in California after the Vietnam War and rediscover themselves on the dance floor forty years later
Live Action Short Film: The Neighbors’ Window
This short features recognizable actors and culminates in a well-executed twist. It tells the intriguing story of a family watching as the glamorous lives of their neighbors unfold through a window. No spoilers here! It’s an interesting short, so check it out for yourself if you have the chance. Brotherhood has also been generating some awards media attention, so don’t completely rule it out.
Other Nominees:
Brotherhood
Nefta Football Club
Saria
A Sister
Adapted Screenplay: Jojo Rabbit, Taika Waititi
Oh boy, both screenplay categories this year are tough showdowns. In Adapted Screenplay, Greta Gerwig’s Little Women faces off against Hitler Taika Waititi’s Jojo Rabbit. The beloved Louisa May Alcott classic has been adapted countless times in the last hundred years, but Gerwig took the linear tale and crafted two parallel timelines that truly bring the heart of the original to life onscreen. Waititi likewise uses his creative prowess to turn the serious Caging Skies into a radically hilarious adaptation, filled with such a masterful balance of outlandish satire and grounded, heart-wrenching emotion. My personal favorite is Jojo Rabbit, and its been backed with wins at the BAFTA Awards and Writer’s Guild of America (WGA) Awards.
Other Nominees:
The Irishman, Steven Zaillian
Joker, Todd Phillips and Scott Silver
Little Women, Greta Gerwig
The Two Popes, Anthony McCarten
Original Screenplay: Parasite, Bong Joon-ho & Han Jin-won
He would join Woody Allen in the list of filmmakers who have three Academy Award wins for Original Screenplay. But Quentin Tarantino is up against some stiff competition. I absolutely loved Knives Out, and Rian Johnson crafted the murder-mystery so well by incorporating — and thereby distracting the audience with — the story of a hero we could support and a struggle we were invested in. However, it really comes down to Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and Parasite. Both screenplays display such creative command. Like Jojo Rabbit, however, Bong Joon-ho and Han Jin-won have taken home Best Original Screenplay honors from the BAFTA and WGA.
Other Nominees:
Marriage Story, Noah Baumbach
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Quentin Tarantino
Knives Out, Rian Johnson
1917, Sam Mendes and Krysty Wilson-Cairns
Cinematography: 1917, Roger Deakins
The film is two hours long, and it looks like one continuous shot because of the complicated long takes. Roger Deakins is a cinematic picture mastermind. He’s found a way to one-up himself, having won the Academy Award for Blade Runner: 2049 just two years ago.
Other Nominees:
The Irishman, Rodrigo Prieto
Joker, Lawrence Sher
Lighthouse, Jarin Blaschke
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Robert Richardson
Original Score: Joker, Hildur Guðnadóttir
The score of Joker has so much working for it. It is so stirring in its complexity. The achievement of composing something so emotionally resonant alone is amazing. However, Guðnadóttir accomplished the brilliant feat of composing the score before the film was made, solely using the script. Thomas Newman may be long overdue for his Oscar and once again proved his mastery with 1917, and this may be the last time John Williams can be recognized for his amazing work on the Star Wars franchise, but I believe the Oscar should and will go to Guðnadóttir, one of very few women in this field. She’s already won the Golden Globe, Critics Chocie Award, the BAFTA, and the Society of Composers and Lyricists (SCL) Award for her outstanding work.
Other Nominees:
Little Women, Alexandre Desplat
Marriage Story, Randy Newman
1917, Thomas Newman
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, John Williams
Original Song: “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again,” Elton John & Bernie Taupin
Rocketman was SNUBBED — snubbed, I tell you! Taron Egerton performed comparably, and arguably superior, to Rami Malek who took home Best Actor last year, AND he sang the iconic Elton John hits but wasn’t even nominated — not that he would win. I could rant for days, but I will just say that this is the Academy’s chance to show Rocketman some of the love it deserves. “Stand Up” is a moving piece and also worthy of the Oscar, but this is Elton John’s prize. If you’re hoping for Frozen II to win this category, I’m sorry, but I think you should let it go.
Other Nominees:
“I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away," Toy Story 4 — Randy Newman
"I’m Standing With You," Breakthrough — Diane Warren
"Into the Unknown, " Frozen II — Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez
"Stand Up," Harriet — Joshuah Brian Campbell and Cynthia Erivo
Directing: Bong Joon Ho/ Sam Mendes
Oh my goodness. Both 1917 and Parasite were so incredibly well directed, and both men are so deserving of this award. I desperately want Bong Joon Ho to win this because I believe the skill he presented in directing Parasite just slightly edges out Sam Mendes’ work — just slightly. Mendes has also received an Academy Award for this category in his directorial debut with American Beauty (1999). This could be the Academy’s chance to reward Bong Joon Ho for his impressive, critically acclaimed body of work. Bong Joon Ho and Sam Mendes split the Critics’ Choice Award here. However, Mendes did claim the Golden Globe, Directors’ Guild Award, and the BAFTA. Since 1948, when the Guild began its award program, the DGA has been an accurate predictor of the Best Director Award, all but seven times. My heart says Bong Joon Ho, but my brain’s saying Sam Mendes.
I do believe that because both films and both directors were truly so magnificent this year, Best Director and Best Picture will be split between the two. If Bong Joon Ho claims Best Director, his film will likely not win Best Picture and vice versa. However, because the Academy is the Academy, there’s a chance that Sam Mendes and 1917 could end up with both.
Other Nominees:
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Todd Phillips, Joker
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Actor in a Leading Role: Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
He’s been running — or should I say dancing? — away with the competition since the Venice Film Festival, where Joker first premiered. Joaquin Phoenix has already snagged the Golden Globe, Critics’ Choice Award, SAG Award and BAFTA. He’s long overdue for his Oscar, and his performance truly carries the film. He completely deserves the Academy Award. This one’s as good a lock as they come.
Other Nominees:
Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes
Actress in a Leading Role: Renée Zellweger
This category is a little tougher than Best Actor, but the award is still one person’s to win: Judy — um, I mean Renée Zellweger for her performance in Judy. She does her own dancing and her own singing —LIVE! Like Phoenix, she’s already taken home the Golden Globe, Critics’ Choice Award, SAG Award, and the BAFTA. The Academy is likely also over the rainbow for her performance.
Other Nominees:
Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Charlize Theron, Bombshell
Best Picture: 1917/Parasite
While all other categories have five possible spots for nominations, Best Picture has nine this year. They’re all wonderful films and have found cultural relevance in some manner and to some extent this year:
Ford v Ferrari in a less competitive year would be golden. It’s exactly the kind of movie with exactly the kind of inspirational American “underdog” rises to victory narrative that voters would absolutely eat up — if not for such strong competition.
It’s strange to believe there was a time when any Martin Scorsese flick would not be nominated for Best Picture. Now it’s almost a given that if Scorsese directs it, it will be a masterpiece in its own right, and it will be an Oscar contender. The Irishman is the 2020 entry that fits this description.
Jojo Rabbit was such a complete joy. It’s satirical commentary on the world brings out the laughter in everyone, while the moments of hope through a coming-of-age (a little sooner than you should have to) story really gives you all the feels. It’s smart and delightful, but… the Academy isn’t quite ready to award it for Best Picture — especially with the other films in this race.
It’s not your typical comic book film. It really isn’t. It’s an in-depth psychological character study that is carried expertly by a compelling Joaquin Phoenix. The cinematography and music are both amazing and aid with the audience’s suspense, and the film had everyone talking about it for months. Joker, however, has lost significant awards steam. *cue awkward, uncontrollable laughter*
YES! A female-centric film, directed by a WOMAN — YES!!! But Little Women is sadly one of those films that is just happy to be nominated. Maybe in a different year. Maybe with a different group of voters. Little Women just still hasn’t found the right time to claim its Oscar. But one of these days, the Gerwig + Ronan team will have their victory. I’m counting on it. Just not this February 9, 2020.
The general public has probably seen a clip from Marriage Story more than many of the other films nominated for Best Picture. It’s a well-earned argument and emotional breakdown that taken out of context… seems a little silly. But it showcases some truly wonderful acting performances from Scarlett Johansson and Adam Driver, and it deserves an actual watch. Unfortunately, I just don’t see it deserving of the Oscar in comparison to its competition. Also the Academy seems more likely to give the award to The Irishman rather than Marriage Story, if any Netflix film is winning this category any time soon.
Hollywood really loves itself. It loves seeing itself onscreen, and it loves awarding itself. With Tarantino as the name backing the project, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood would typically be one of the frontrunners in the Best Picture race, but it’s fallen to the wayside this Oscars Season after claiming the Golden Globe for Best Picture (Comedy/Musical) and the Critics’ Choice Award.
The 2020 Oscars comes down to a final showdown between Parasite and 1917. If Parasite were to win Best Picture this year, it would be the first time ever that a foreign-language film achieved such a feat. Following the backlash the Academy received for picking Green Book last year, voters may be inclined to pick the well-deserving, more groundbreaking film Parasite. However, traditional voters may still lean toward the more traditional winner, which would be 1917.
A Parasite win would also mark the first time in over sixty years that the Cannes Film Festival Palme d’Or winner also claims Best Picture. It has already taken the SAG Award for Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture, which is roughly the SAG equivalent to Best Picture, but is definitely not the strongest indicator for this category.
Twenty-one winners of Best Film at the Producers Guild Awards (PGA) in the last thirty went on to win Best Picture. This year, Best Film went to 1917, which was also awarded the Golden Globe for Best Picture (Drama), the DGA Award, and the BAFTA.
1917 is simply epic and will likely be first on many ballots, if not most. However, in this insanely difficult year, the movie with the most second-place votes in the Best Picture’s preferential voting system might take home the top prize. That could be Parasite’s big chance. It has slowly become the “edgier” and more beloved film in the past month. Could that time, the global acclaim, celebrity endorsements, and Bong Joon Ho’s poignant Golden Globes speech given it the push it needs? Only time can tell.
This year has been very difficult to predict, but it seems like 1917 and Parasite will be bringing home some decent hardware. Whether you’re watching ABC from your laptop on Sunday, checking out the ceremony from a dining hall TV, or catching up on the winners the next morning, I hope my insight has helped you come to some conclusions for your own ballot predictions. While the movie stars are thanking the Academy, I’d like to thank you for giving this blog a read.
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